Dr. Albert Metz is a Managing Director in the financial, regulatory, data mining, and antitrust practices of Global Economics Group based in New York.
- Albert Metz
- Managing Director, New York
- (917) 975-1211
- Antitrust/Competition Policy; Data Analytics; Financial Regulation
Prior to joining Global Economics Group, Dr. Metz worked for 15 years at Moody’s Investors Service, specializing in corporate, financial institution, sovereign and structured finance credit research and analysis. Most recently he was Managing Director of the Global Methodology Development Group, a group of nearly 100 professionals with responsibility for developing credit models and methodologies for all asset classes across all lines of business. Dr. Metz also worked to create the Innovation Group, a team dedicated to leveraging machine learning and data mining techniques. Prior to that Dr. Metz was the Managing Director of Credit Policy Research, including Default Research, Model Development and Verification, and Technology. He frequently met with regulators and policy makers to discuss credit risk, credit ratings performance, risk modeling, and antitrust and other policy questions.
Dr. Metz’s main areas of specialization are econometrics and statistics, finance, institutional and consumer credit, real estate, risk modeling and assessment, and numerical methods. He is the author of copyrighted and patented models. In addition to credit risk, his experience also includes work in asset pricing, real estate, and government. His work has been featured in the media such as the Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The Economist, CNNMoney, CNBC, Forbes, Bloomberg, Fox Business, BusinessWeek, Washington Post, Huffington Post, and Reuters, among others.
Dr. Metz has developed several models of corporate and consumer credit, financial risk contagion, real estate market performance measures, and pharmaceutical drug development, to name a few. He has developed patented models of default and credit rating transitions and trademarked models of regional real estate prices. Dr. Metz’s models of corporate and financial institution default rates have consistently outperformed street forecasts, including through the financial crisis of 2008. He has developed models of residential mortgage default, prepayment and loss which have been used to assess the credit risk of hundreds of billions of dollars in securitizations. Dr. Metz has also contributed to books on emerging markets and sovereign risk.
In pharmaceuticals, he co-developed a model to estimate the likelihood of drugs failing and succeeding each of the clinical stages of the Food and Drug Administration, and their expected durations in each of these phases. This model has become one of the two most used by industry analysts to assist in valuing pharmaceutical and biotechnology pipelines. His research on pharmaceuticals has been discussed in books on how to value pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, and on publications pertaining to health care, intellectual property and cartels.
Dr. Metz has been at the forefront of the empirical detection of some conspiracies and manipulations. In 2008 he flagged the possibility of collusion in LIBOR prior to the launch of large scale investigations. He has also flagged the possibility of manipulation and collusion in gold markets in 2013.
Dr. Metz has also co-authored several articles and papers on econometric methods and screens for conspiracies, manipulations and fraud. He has published in peer-reviewed journals such as the Journal of Pharmaceutical Finance, Economics and Policy, and the Journal of Banking and Finance. His work has also appeared in trade publications including The Antitrust Source, and The Competition Policy International Antitrust Chronicle.
Dr. Metz holds a Ph.D. and a Masters in Economics from the University of Chicago where he was the first student ever awarded Distinction in the field of Econometrics. He also holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Occidental College where he graduated summa cum laude.